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Shanxi: Based on "Double Carbon" Annual Development Target
Summary:
今年前三季度,山西地区生产总值较上年同期增长10.5%,增速高于全国0.7个百分点。在已发布经济三季报的31个省区市中,山西增速位居全国第五,其经济正保持全方位恢复态势。 在山西省社会科学院(山西省人民政府发展研究中心)院长杨茂林看来,前三季度,山西主要经济指标符合“前高后低”基本格局,但下降趋势不容忽视,经济运行中不确定、不稳定因素依然较多。进入三季度以来,在国内疫情和山西汛情的多重冲击下,经过科学统筹,山西经济继续保持稳定恢复发展态势,主要指标保持较快增长,为完成全年目标打下了坚实基础。 “今年山西经济的较快增长是基于2020年的较低基数,导致今年的经济很大程度是恢复性增长;从山西两年的地区生产总值平均增长5.8%来看,其增速还高于全国0.6个百分点。”山西财经大学经济学院王建功博士认为,今年山西经济的快速增长,与过去几年山西省委、省政府大力推动产业转型、各种新兴产业项目建设落地等方面的部署密不可分,从前期的招商引资,到现在的逐步投产甚至规模化量产,现阶段这些前期的工作已经到了回报期,是过去几年努力的集中释放。 立足“双碳”发展 作为能源大省,山西致力于当好能源革命排头兵,全力保障国家能源安全。“今年以来,山西能源工业保持了较快增长。当前全球经济快速复苏,对能源、原材料需求明显增加,主要大宗商品价格大幅上涨,这对于稳定山西工业经济增长基本面来说是有利的。”杨茂林如是说道。 山西省工业和信息化厅运行监测服务处三级主任科员李亚界介绍道,煤电等能源工业在满足全省用能、拉动山西工业快速增长的基础上,还通过与14省区市签订煤炭保供合同,有力保障了全国能源需求。 “山西作为能源革命综合改革试点,绿色低碳转型任务艰巨。”杨茂林强调道,在保障国家能源供应情况下,山西必须要坚定战略定位,积极推进“碳达峰、碳中和”、能耗双控、“两高”项目分类处置等,坚定推动产业转型升级。 特别是煤炭产业要立足全国,合理控制总量、坚决兜住底线,大力推动智能绿色安全开采和清洁高效深度利用,积极布局先进接续产能,加快煤矿智能化改造,严格控制煤炭消费增长,有序推进煤炭消耗减量替代。 全力奋战四季度 展望四季度,山西能源、原材料产业将继续保持稳定增长,新兴产业发展势头不会减弱,经济快速增长的基本面不会改变。 杨茂林强调,特别是9月份以来能源保供形势严峻,作为煤炭大省,山西坚决保障国家能源供给,实施稳煤保供一系列措施,与多个省区市签订了煤炭保供合同,这必将推动四季度煤炭产量进一步提高,短期内对山西工业经济产生助推作用,有助于保持山西工业经济的稳定增长。 “随着‘双碳’政策深入推进和对‘两高’项目的严格管控,四季度乃至今后更长时间,山西省的焦化、冶金、电力等传统产业势必会受到较大影响,完成地区生产总值总量的目标还有较大压力。”对此,杨茂林建议,山西需要提早加强经济运行调节,培育更多新增长点,确保经济平稳运行。 “四季度大体会维持既有趋势,略有回调。”王建功认为,由于能源矿产原材料等上游产品价格增幅过快,PPI出现多年来的新高,中央在调控方面会加大力度,采取针对性的调节措施,地产调控也会对固定资产投资有所影响,在国际大环境和国家政策约束下,双减约束对于工业的影响也较为直接。 山西省统计局副局长卫永杰表示,下一步,山西将全力奋战四季度,努力完成全年目标任务。
In the first three quarters of this year, Shanxi's GDP increased by 10.5 over the same period last year, and the growth rate was 0.7 percentage points higher than that of the whole country. Among the 31 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities that have issued three quarterly economic reports, Shanxi's growth rate ranks fifth in the country, and its economy is maintaining an all-round recovery trend.
According to Yang Maolin, Dean of the Shanxi Academy of Social Sciences (Shanxi Provincial People's Government Development Research Center), in the first three quarters, Shanxi's main economic indicators were in line with the basic pattern of "high before and low after", but the downward trend cannot be ignored. There are still many unstable factors. Since the beginning of the third quarter, under the multiple impacts of the domestic epidemic and the flood situation in Shanxi, after scientific overall planning, Shanxi's economy has continued to maintain a stable recovery and development trend, and the main indicators have maintained rapid growth, laying a solid foundation for the completion of the annual target.
"Shanxi's rapid economic growth this year is based on a low base in 2020, resulting in a largely restorative growth this year; judging from Shanxi's two-year average GDP growth of 5.8, its growth rate is still 0.6 percentage points higher than that of the whole country." Dr. Wang Jiangong from the School of Economics of Shanxi University of Finance and Economics believes that the rapid economic growth of Shanxi this year is inseparable from the deployment of the Shanxi Provincial Party Committee and the Provincial Government in the past few years to vigorously promote industrial transformation and the implementation of various emerging industry projects. To the current gradual production and even large-scale mass production, these preliminary work has reached the payback period at this stage, which is the concentrated release of efforts in the past few years.
Based on the "double carbon" development
As a major energy province, Shanxi is committed to being a pioneer in the energy revolution and making every effort to ensure national energy security. "Since the beginning of this year, Shanxi's energy industry has maintained rapid growth. The current rapid recovery of the global economy, the demand for energy and raw materials has increased significantly, and the prices of major commodities have risen sharply, which is beneficial for stabilizing the fundamentals of Shanxi's industrial economic growth." Yang Maolin said so.
Li Yajie, the third-level chief staff member of the Operation Monitoring Service Department of the Shanxi Provincial Department of Industry and Information Technology, introduced that energy industries such as coal and electricity have also signed coal with 14 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities on the basis of meeting the energy consumption of the province and driving the rapid growth of Shanxi's industry. The guarantee contract has effectively guaranteed the national energy demand.
"Shanxi as a comprehensive reform of the energy revolution pilot, green low-carbon transformation task is arduous." Yang Maolin emphasized that under the condition of ensuring the country's energy supply, Shanxi must strengthen its strategic positioning, actively promote "carbon peak, carbon neutrality", dual control of energy consumption, and classified disposal of "two highs" projects, and firmly promote industrial transformation and upgrading.
In particular, the coal industry should be based on the whole country, reasonably control the total amount, firmly hold the bottom line, vigorously promote intelligent green and safe mining and clean, efficient and deep utilization, actively lay out advanced continuous production capacity, speed up the intelligent transformation of coal mines, strictly control the growth of coal consumption, and promote coal consumption reduction and substitution in an orderly manner.
All-out fight for the fourth quarter
Looking forward to the fourth quarter, Shanxi's energy and raw material industries will continue to maintain steady growth, the development momentum of emerging industries will not weaken, and the fundamentals of rapid economic growth will not change.
Yang Maolin emphasized that, especially since September, the energy supply situation has been severe. As a major coal province, Shanxi has resolutely guaranteed the national energy supply, implemented a series of measures to stabilize coal supply, and signed coal supply contracts with many provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities. Promote the further increase in coal production in the fourth quarter, which will boost Shanxi's industrial economy in the short term and help maintain the stable growth of Shanxi's industrial economy.
"With the in-depth promotion of the 'double carbon' policy and the strict control of the 'two high' projects, the coking, metallurgy, electric power and other traditional industries in Shanxi Province are bound to be greatly affected in the fourth quarter and even longer in the future, and there is still great pressure to achieve the goal of total regional GDP." In this regard, Yang Maolin suggested that Shanxi needs to strengthen the adjustment of economic operation early, cultivate more new growth points, and ensure the smooth operation of the economy.
"The fourth quarter will maintain the existing trend, a slight correction." Wang Jiangong believes that due to the rapid increase in the prices of upstream products such as energy, minerals and raw materials, PPI has reached a new high for many years. The central government will increase its efforts in regulation and take targeted adjustment measures. Real estate regulation will also have an impact on fixed asset investment. Under the constraints of the international environment and national policies, the impact of double reduction constraints on industry is also more direct.
Wei Yongjie, deputy director of the Shanxi Provincial Bureau of Statistics, said that in the next step, Shanxi will make every effort to fight for the fourth quarter and strive to complete the annual goals and tasks.
Key words:
Metallurgical
Zhongke
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